Prediction market exchange Kalshi has risen to fourth place among U.S. sports betting operators when measured by handle-per-adult, according to new data published by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) in its April Prediction Market Monitor. The position places it ahead of BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and bet365.
The ranking puts Kalshi behind only DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics based on EKG’s adjusted handle metric, and represents a jump of five positions year-over-year.
EKG measures Kalshi’s volume using an internal metric it calls handle-analog, which tracks daily positive fluctuations in open interest, execution prices, and resolution-day activity evaluated across tens of millions of market-level data points, according to the firm’s April Prediction Market Monitor. This methodology differs materially from the state-reported handle figures used to rank traditional online sportsbooks.
$2 Billion Monthly Volume in March
U.S. sports prediction market activity reached an estimated $2 billion in monthly handle-equivalent trading volume in March, representing approximately 11% of the combined total when measured against online sports betting, according to EKG. Kalshi is now running at roughly 22% of DraftKings’ output on the adjusted handle-per-adult basis. EKG projects total U.S. prediction market handle-equivalent activity could reach approximately $34 billion in 2026, or roughly 20% of trailing 12-month sportsbook handle.
Growth Concentrated in Non-Betting States
A significant portion of that volume is originating in states where traditional online sports betting remains unavailable. According to EKG’s data, 69% of all sports event contracts are originating in the 19 states without legal online sports betting, with 43% of total volume coming from California and Texas alone.
EKG cautions that Kalshi does not release state-by-state volume data, and those figures are derived from an internal model built using Google search trends, digital advertising data, and the firm’s own competitive index, weighted against each state’s adult population. The firm describes the output as a “principled approximation” rather than a precise count.
Even in mature, fully competitive online sports betting states, EKG pegged Kalshi’s share of the combined handle at approximately 2%, which the firm characterises as a “provisional ceiling” on substitution. The report also notes that prediction markets accept users aged 18 and over, whereas most state-regulated sportsbooks require bettors to be 21, meaning a segment of Kalshi’s user base has no direct sportsbook equivalent.
Operator Responses and Regulatory Headwinds
DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have all launched prediction market products as the category’s scale has drawn incumbent operators into the space. Both DraftKings and FanDuel products are expected to ramp up further through 2026. Active monthly users on Kalshi climbed from 600,000 to 5.1 million between the start of 2025 and the time of reporting, according to data from Sensor Tower.
The regulatory environment, however, remains fluid. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is actively shaping the framework governing prediction markets, with rulemaking timelines accelerating amid increased political scrutiny. Several states have also begun exploring legislative responses, ranging from oversight measures to outright bans, as policymakers seek to clarify jurisdictional boundaries.
State-level legal challenges have multiplied in recent months. An Ohio federal court ruled in March that Kalshi’s products constitute gambling subject to state jurisdiction under the Ohio Casino Control Commission, a ruling the company has pledged to appeal. Washington state filed suit against the platform in late March, while Massachusetts obtained a preliminary injunction in January restricting Kalshi’s sports-related markets in that state.
The CFTC retains primary federal oversight of Kalshi as a designated contract market, and the question of jurisdictional supremacy between federal and state authority is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court.
Cannibalization Concerns Remain Contested
EKG’s data fuels an ongoing debate about whether prediction markets are diverting customers from traditional sportsbooks or expanding the overall wagering audience. The firm’s analysis suggests limited substitution between the two products, indicating incremental growth rather than direct displacement.
DraftKings Chief Executive Jason Robins has publicly characterised users who migrated from sportsbooks to prediction platforms as predominantly low-margin customers. The longer-term competitive implications, however, are less settled, particularly as Kalshi and rival platforms continue to scale in high-population states where state-licensed operators cannot currently operate.