Legal US sportsbooks are projected to take in a record $32.3 billion in wagers on the 2026-27 NFL season, according to an analysis published by RotoWire on August 11. The figure would mark the fifth consecutive record season for regulated NFL handle, up from $31.76 billion in 2025-26 and $27.6 billion in 2024.
The American Gaming Association, the US commercial gaming industry’s national trade association, issued a separate estimate for the season on September 4. The AGA projected $29.5 billion in legal NFL wagering for 2026 — essentially flat against the $29.4 billion it now attributes to the 2025 season, a comparison baseline that differs from the $30 billion figure AGA cited in its own release last August 28.
The two figures stem from different methodologies. RotoWire’s analysis draws on state betting handle reports, public company earnings disclosures, SEC filings, AGA data, Eilers & Krejcik Gaming figures, and trading data published by Kalshi and Polymarket. The AGA’s estimate applies national handle growth trends to the prior season’s NFL total, supplemented by football-specific reporting from select states to isolate the pro-football share of wagers, and covers preseason games, futures booked since March, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
Both figures point to the same underlying trend: the smallest year-over-year growth rate the legal sportsbook market has recorded since 2018. RotoWire’s data puts that growth at 1.7%; the AGA’s own comparison shows essentially no growth at all.
Prediction Markets Emerge As Fastest-Growing Segment
While regulated sportsbook growth has slowed, prediction market volume tied to NFL games is projected to reach $36.8 billion for the season, according to RotoWire’s analysis — more than double the prior season’s total and now exceeding regulated sportsbook handle outright. The figure positions prediction markets as the fastest-growing segment of NFL-linked wagering activity heading into the 2026 season.
Geographic data included in the analysis shows 44% of prediction market NFL volume originating from California and Texas, and 69% coming from states without legal, regulated sports betting. Bill Speros, senior betting and prediction market analyst at RotoWire, said: “Prediction markets aren’t stealing NFL bettors away from sportsbooks so much as reaching people sportsbooks can’t legally reach yet.”
AGA Frames Prediction Markets As A Consumer Risk
AGA President and CEO Bill Miller attributed the stall in legal handle growth directly to prediction market competition. “Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled,” Miller said in the association’s September 4 release.
Miller also raised a consumer-protection objection to how prediction market platforms present sports-linked contracts to bettors. “These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” he said.
The AGA’s release did not quantify total prediction market volume across sports; RotoWire’s separate NFL-specific figure of $36.8 billion is the more granular estimate currently available for the category.